Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Four Things that Happened Monday You should Know About

While the markets in the United States and parts of Europe were closed on Monday there are four things that took place that global investors need to know.

1. Japan reported smaller than expected trade deficit in April owing to stronger exports and weaker imports. The trade deficit of JPY53.4 bln was about one-seventh the size the consensus expected after a JPY227.4 bln surplus in March. Exports rose 8%, which, while off the 8.5% year-over-year pace in March, was better than the 6% forecast. Imports fell 4.2% year-over-year. The consensus had called for a 1% decline. The rise in exports follows the BOJ indication last week that it has greater confidence in the economy, after it previously cut its forecast.

2. China announced that as of June 1 it would cut tariffs on a range of consumer goods in order to stimulate demand. The import duty, for example, on Western-style clothing will be reduced to 7-10% from 14-23%. The duty on ankle-high boost and sport shoes will be cut in half to 12%. The tariff on skin care products will be cut to 2% from 5%. If the tariff cuts spur domestic producers to cut prices as well, the risk is that it strengthens the deflationary forces that Chinese policy makers are fighting with the other hand.

3. Investors did not seem particularly worried about results of the regional and municipal elections in Spain that saw the two main parties, the center-right Popular Party and the center-left Socialists, draw 51.9% of the vote down from 65.3% in 2011. The anti-austerity Podemos has shift a bit toward the center and captured the mayor's office of Madrid and Barcelona. The charges of corruption against the two main political parties drew voters to the new centrist Ciuidadanos party.

On one hand the success of Podemos will likely sap some of the strength of the Cataloninan independence movement. On the other hand, Spanish politicians have little experience in forging coalitions which will result from the fragmented voting results. National elections must be held by the end of year. Based on these results, it is projected that of the 350-member parliament, the PP would get 120 seats, the Socialists 108, Podemos 37 and Ciuidadanos 15. The remaining 70 seats would be split among 15 small parties. Prime Minister Rajoy's campaign strategy has been based on being rewarded for the economic recovery that is underway. Spain will likely be the fastest growth large European country this year, though it is achieving this growth with less than 4/5 of its workforce being employed.

The Spanish stock market fell 2%. Yet so did the Italian bourse. Spain's 10-year benchmark yield slipped 1 bp as did Italy's. The 2-year benchmark yield fell nearly 4 bp, while Italy's fell by a little more than two basis points.

4. Poland's Law and Justice candidate Duda defeated the incumbent Komorowski of the Civic Platform Party (51.5% to 48.5%) in the presidential run-off. Duda is campaigned on a platform that called for increase benefits to families, reversing the increase in the retirement age, and increasing taxes on banks. The Civic Platform Party has dominated Polish politics for the past eight years, but was not rewarded for the relatively favorable economic performance. The economy grew by 3.5% in Q4 14, and Q1 GDP will be reported May 29. Headline inflation is negative (-1.1% in April), though the core rate is slightly positive (0.4%). A general election is expected in November.

US stock market lost about 1.5% and the euro, which slipped against the dollar, extended its six week uptrend against the zloty. Poland's 10-year benchmark bond yield jumped 11 bp to 2.90%, a eight-month high.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Forex - Japanese yen holds steady despite better than expected Q1 GDP

Investing.com - The Japanese yen held steady Wednesday after first quarter growth figures came in better than expected with markets focused on events in Europe and negotiations over Greece's debt.

USD/JPY changed hands at 120.70, up 0.01%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7917, up 0.04% and EUR/USD was quoted at 1.1132, down 0.16%.

In Japan first quarter GDP rose 0.6% for an annualized pace of 2.4%, outstripping expectations of an 0.4% gain quarter-on-quarter and for a year-on-year pace of 1.5%.

Economists expect GDP to continue growing in the second quarter. The average economist forecast for second quarter GDP is an annualized 2.26%, according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 40 economists by the Japan Center for Economic Research conducted from April 28 to May 7.

However, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Akira Amari said after the release that weakness in the global economy remained a threat to sustained growth.

Later on, Australia reports Westpac Consumer Sentiment for May, with a fall of 3.2% noted in April.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was quoted at 95.44, up 0.07%.

Overnight, the dollar extended gains against a basket of other major currencies on Tuesday, as data showing that U.S. building permits and housing starts soared past expectations last month continued to support.

The dollar was boosted after the U.S. Commerce Department said that the number of building permits issued last month increased by 10.1% last month to 1.143 million units from March's total of 1.038 million.

Analysts expected building permits to rise by 2.2% to 1.060 million units in March.

The report also showed that U.S. housing starts soared by 20.2% in April to hit 1.135 million units from March's total of 944,000 units, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 9.9% to 1.019 million.

A senior European Central Bank policymaker Benoit Coeure said the central bank is planning to speed up the pace of its bond-buying stimulus program before the summer in order to avoid the "notably lower market liquidity" in late July and August.

Fears over the prospects of a Greek default also continued to pressure the single currency, even after the country’s labor minister said Tuesday that an agreement with its lenders on a cash-for-reforms deal would soon be reached.

Forex - Aussie weakens despite upbeat Westpac consumer survey, yen down

Investing.com - The Australian dollar eased in Asia on Wednesday after a consumer sentiment survey showed a sharp jump higher and the Japanese yen weakened as the market digested first quarter growth figures came in better than expected.

Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment for May jumped 6.4% to 102.4, the highest since January 2014.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the minutes from the RBA's May meeting show it is relying on a continuing boost to household expenditure to encourage businesses to invest and employ - setting the economy on a path of a falling unemployment rate and above-trend growth in 2016.

"Such a scenario would be consistent with an extended period of steady interest rates," Evans said.

"The results from this survey will certainly provide some encouragement for the bank that households might continue to lift the pace of expenditure growth. Our view, for now, is that the most likely scenario is for an extended period of steady rates whilst recognizing that conditions in the labor market remain fragile and this latest boost to confidence will need to be sustained."

USD/JPY changed hands at 120.82, up 0.10%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7907, down 0.09% and EUR/USD was quoted at 1.1130, down 0.19%.

In Japan first quarter GDP rose 0.6% for an annualized pace of 2.4%, outstripping expectations of an 0.4% gain quarter-on-quarter and for a year-on-year pace of 1.5%.

Economists expect GDP to continue growing in the second quarter. The average economist forecast for second quarter GDP is an annualized 2.26%, according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 40 economists by the Japan Center for Economic Research conducted from April 28 to May 7.

However, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Akira Amari said after the release that weakness in the global economy remained a threat to sustained growth.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was quoted at 95.54, up 0.18%.

Overnight, the dollar extended gains against a basket of other major currencies on Tuesday, as data showing that U.S. building permits and housing starts soared past expectations last month continued to support.

The dollar was boosted after the U.S. Commerce Department said that the number of building permits issued last month increased by 10.1% last month to 1.143 million units from March's total of 1.038 million.

Analysts expected building permits to rise by 2.2% to 1.060 million units in March.

The report also showed that U.S. housing starts soared by 20.2% in April to hit 1.135 million units from March's total of 944,000 units, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 9.9% to 1.019 million.

A senior European Central Bank policymaker Benoit Coeure said the central bank is planning to speed up the pace of its bond-buying stimulus program before the summer in order to avoid the "notably lower market liquidity" in late July and August.

Fears over the prospects of a Greek default also continued to pressure the single currency, even after the country’s labor minister said Tuesday that an agreement with its lenders on a cash-for-reforms deal would soon be reached.

Dow sets record high for 2nd straight session; NASDAQ, S&P fall slightly

Investing.com -- Stocks on the U.S. equities markets were mixed on Tuesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average used a late rally to set an all-time closing record for a second consecutive session amid one of the strongest months in residential construction on record.

The Dow gained 13.51 or 0.07% to 18,312.39 on Tuesday to extend its winning streak to its fourth session. The Dow also closed at a record-high in early-March, but has fluctuated over the last two months following a wave of soft U.S. economic data.

New residential construction for the month of April soared to its highest level since 2007, bolstered by a spike in multi-family starts. The U.S. Department of Commerce said Tuesday that housing starts last month surged more than 20% for the month to 1.135 million, one of its highest on record. As a result, the dollar rose by more than 1% reaching its highest level in two weeks.

Disappointing earnings from Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT) and a sell-off in energy stocks still weighed on the major indices, which wavered on a choppy day of trading. One day after setting an all-time closing high, the S&P 500 Composite index fell back slightly while the NASDAQ Composite remained just under a record closing-high.

Wal-Mart, the worst performer on the Dow, fell 3.49 or 4.37% to 76.43, after missing analysts' forecasts with its same-store sales. Though the world's largest retailer increased same-store sales by 1.1% for the first quarter, it still fell below estimates of a 1.5% gain on a year-over-year basis. Wal-Mart also reported slight declines in revenue and net profit over the period. The top performer on the Dow was McDonald`s Corporation (NYSE:MCD), which gained 2.66 or 2.71% to 100.68.

The NASDAQ lost 8.41 or 0.17% to 5,070.03, while the S&P 500 fell 1.37 or 0.06% to 2,127.83.

On the S&P 500, seven of 10 sectors closed in the red as stocks in the Energy, Telecommunications and Basic Materials industries lagged. Stocks in the Energy sector fell by more than 1.3% on the session, as crude futures experienced their worst session of the month. Stocks in the Health Care, Utilities and Financials sectors rose modestly on the day.

The biggest gainer on the NASDAQ was Liberty Glob a, which rose 1.17 or 2.25% to 53.11. The worst performer, meanwhile, was Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ:YHOO) which dropped 3.38 or 7.62% to 40.98 following a last-minute sell-off. On Tuesday, Yahoo! promoted Laurie Mann to its chief information officer one day after Mike Kail stepped down from the position.

The top performer on the S&P 500 was TJX Companies Inc (NYSE:TJX), which gained 1.93 or 2.87% to 69.19. The worst performer on the S&P 500 was Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN), which lost 6.11 or 15.00% to 35.16, one day after reporting worse than expected earnings.

Japan’s GDP 0.6% vs. 0.4% forecast

Reuters. Japan’s GDP 0.6% vs. 0.4% forecast © Reuters. Japan’s GDP 0.6% vs. 0.4% forecast
Investing.com - Japanese gross domestic product rose more-than-expected in the last quarter, preliminary official data showed on Tuesday.

In a report, Cabinet Office said that Japan’s GDP rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, from 0.3% in the preceding quarter whose figure was revised down from 0.4%.

Analysts had expected Japan’s GDP to rise 0.4% in the last quarter

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

World Economy Doing Worse in Practice Than Theory Suggests

Easy monetary policy, a halving of the price of oil and sliding currencies in many parts of the world should be a recipe for faster economic expansion.

Yet when the International Monetary Fund released forecasts on Tuesday it left its prediction for global growth this year unchanged at 3.5 percent. That’s less than the 3.9 percent it estimated a year ago before oil plunged, the dollar rose and the European Central Bank began quantitative easing.

“If you had told someone 15 years ago this is the level of interest rates and this is the oil price, they’d have thought there would be a boom,” said Michala Marcussen, global head of economics at Societe Generale SA in London. “But there isn’t."

Marcussen suspects reliable drivers of demand in the past are no longer as powerful as they once were. All told, she reckons that the fillip from lower interest rates, energy bills and currencies may be just half what economists would have expected previously.

So why are onetime engines not powering expansion more? The answer lies in a mixture of structural shifts and legacies from the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Lower borrowing costs are probably being stymied by the need to reduce debts, a continued reluctance by banks to lend and tighter financial regulations.

Oil, Currencies

As for oil, increased energy efficiency is negating some of the benefit of lower costs. Weaker exchange rates, as evidenced by Japan, may also provide less of a positive pulse as exporters pocket profits rather than engage in price wars.

More fundamental reasons are also in play. Aging populations mean future retirees are saving more, Marcussen said. And China is still transmitting deflation.

The failure of economists and their models to recognize the world has changed explains why forecasts are so regularly wrong, according to Stephen King, chief global economist at HSBC Holdings Plc.

He reckons that since 2000, analysts overestimated annual growth in the U.S. a dozen times and underestimated it on just three occasions. The divide is not as wide but a similar pattern is evident for Japan, Germany and the U.K.

“Why it is that people make these assumptions year after year and don’t observe things are persistently weaker?” said King.

Expect to hear much debate over so-called secular stagnation when policy makers gather at the IMF this week, leaving governments under pressure to do more to boost demand.

“On the margin, the global economy is still showing more signs of stagnation than either a boom or a bust,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research Inc.

Sunday, February 8, 2015

A Step Forward in China’s Derivatives Market

(Bloomberg) China’s nascent financial derivatives market has taken a further step forward with today’s launch of stock options trading in Shanghai. For the first time, investors will be able to trade options on the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 A-Share Index (SSE50) exchange-traded fund, offering investors new investment vehicles for diversification and hedging against risk.

The introduction of stock options represents a significant development in China’s capital markets and a move toward greater financial reform and market liberalization. Today’s launch follows the introduction of futures trading and short selling in China, which laid a foundation for stock options trading.

For this new hedging tool to positively contribute to a more robust equity market, liquidity will be an imperative factor. Market participants, including investors and market makers, will need powerful tools to analyze volatility, evaluate strategies, monitor their positions and risk sensitivities.

For decades, finance professionals worldwide have used Bloomberg for equity derivatives and benefited from our proven tools and market experience. Data and information on the Bloomberg Professional service enhances market transparency, providing investors insight into the global options markets. Our market-leading analytics help finance professionals pinpoint arbitrage opportunities and develop options strategies so they can hedge against or take advantage of market volatility.

In the past months, we have conducted educational seminars on the China’s derivatives market and shared best practices, as asset management firms, brokerages and securities houses seek to equip themselves with the necessary knowledge and tools required for stock options trading.

So what’s next?

China has been a hotbed for international investment and as it continues its financial reform journey, global investors will be looking at opportunities to participate, and to seek new ways to hedge risk in one of the world’s most exciting stock markets. As the market continues its push and roll-out of more derivatives products, I will continue to support the investment community and extend Bloomberg’s role in advancing global financial markets and engaging China with the world.