EUR/USD technical analysis (1.30 level)

EUR/USD technical analysis (1.30 level)

The 1.30 level for the EUR/USD has proved to be a critical point for this particular currency pair. Indeed Fibonacci retracement at this level appears to be forming at most of the time charts: for the monthly chart, the 38.2 level is at 1.30500, retraced from the low at 10/2000 and 7/2008; for the weekly chart, the 50.0 level is at 1.28740, retraced from the low at 7/2012 and 1/2013; for the daily chart, the 23.6 level is at 1.29704, retraced from the high at 1/2/2013 and 4/4/2013.
From this point of view, the last couple of days have seen this pair test the 1.30 level to no avail. The weekly and monthly Fibonacci levels I mentioned above are still testing. However the daily chart has suppressed this level. This happened last week following the stronger than expected results from the US retail sales and the lower than expected CPI from the Euro zone. However there were a number of US market data release last week which meant most traders had closed their positions prior, probably Friday of 10th, hence low volumes.
Last week was very bearish with the close being lower than the open for all the five days. Amidst the economic turmoil the Euro is performing lower than expected. This can be traced from the RSI indicator. This bearish trend started in Feb and with the recession in Cyprus this trend became inevitable.
However, with few data release this week, I expect the Euro to perform better against the USD at least by getting back to the 1.30 level. if the trend manages to reach this level, earlier reversal expected at the beginning of last week might eventually happen which by my analysis will see the euro probably hit the 1.31 and 1.32 level by early next month.